World Cup 2026 — Simulation
Monte Carlo tournament projection: champion & finalist probabilities.
20,000 Monte Carlo simulations · generated 5 Jul, 18:47 · compared with the bookmaker World Cup Winner market
✓ Conditioned on 72 real results so far · 0 group games remaining
🏆 Champion probability
📉 Champion odds — trend
📉 Champion odds over time
Model title probability · 7 daily snapshots
⚖️ Our model vs sharp market
Edge = model − market. Amber = we over-rate vs sharps, blue = we under-rate. The market is the sharper baseline.
📊 Πρόκριση Ομίλων
1ος = πρώτη θέση ομίλου · Top-2 = απευθείας πρόκριση · Πρόκριση = top-2 ή ένας από τους 8 καλύτερους 3ους.
🥇 Most-likely final pairing
Even the top pairing is a long shot — the exact two finalists can't be predicted with confidence.
👟 Golden Boot — top scorer
Each simulated goal is assigned to a player by his recency-weighted share of his nation's goals. Going deep in the bracket matters as much as scoring rate — that's why favourites' strikers dominate.
— field (any unlisted player): 0.7%
⚠ Elo-Poisson engine calibrated to our trained result model. Bracket group-letter assignment is approximate (fixtures carry no group label), so exact knockout paths are indicative. Knockout draws resolved via Elo-weighted penalties.
⚠ Golden Boot shares come from international scoring history (martj42 goalscorers). Restricted to officially called-up players (API-Football squads). Injured/suspended players are excluded (44 flagged via API-Football /injuries; refreshed daily). Penalty-takers are implicitly favoured.
Re-run nightly. Winner is a probability distribution, not a single pick.